The 2009 hurricane season could be a repeat of this year's season, which brought two hurricanes and a tropical storm to Texas.
"That's pretty much what we're seeing right now," said Phil Klotzbach with the Colorado State University hurricane forecast team. "Obviously, there's a lot of uncertainty this far in advance."
The university's first forecast for 2009 calls for 14 named storms, with seven of those becoming hurricanes. Three of the hurricanes are forecast to become major storms with sustained winds greater than 110 mph.
What will that mean for the Gulf Coast when hurricane season begins June 1?
"We can't say months in advance where the storms are going to go," Klotzbach said. "The average probability for the last century is a 30 percent chance that a major hurricane is going to make landfall along the Gulf Coast."
The 2009 forecast puts the probability at 38 percent for the area from Brownsville to the Florida Panhandle.
Jeb Lacey, Victoria County's emergency management coordinator, said the new forecast is similar to the one issued a year ago for 2008.
"They've been very successful in getting us in the ballpark over the last few years," he said. "But once again, it's just a very vague estimate as to what could happen."
That's why the emergency management office always prepares for a worst-case scenario, Lacy said.
In 2008, Hurricane Dolly moved inland just north of Brownsville in July. It was followed in August by Tropical Storm Edouard, which made landfall near Beaumont.
September brought Hurricane Ike, which had a bead on the Middle Texas Coast until turning northward and devastating the Galveston area.
The Colorado hurricane researchers said their forecast mirrors a pattern with which hurricane-weary coastal residents are all too familiar.
"We are currently in an active period for Atlantic hurricane activity," William Gray, another Colorado State forecaster, said in a press release.
The active cycle is expected to continue for another decade or two before becoming calmer, he said.
But Klotzbach said people shouldn't be overly alarmed yet about next year.
"The thing the public should do is take a break," he said. "Hurricane season isn't for seven months."
2009 STORM PREDICTION14 named storms
7 hurricanes
3 intense hurricanes.
A normal year would bring 10 named storms, six hurricanes and two intense hurricanes.
Hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
SouRce: Colorado State University 2009 hurricane forecastMORE INFORMATION
The entire hurricane forecast is available athurricane.atmos.colostate.edu.
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